TRENDING RESULTS: Presidential Poll

Tracking the pulse of the tea party movement.

The 2012 election season is heating up. There are many potential Presidential candidates, and we will make the bold prediction that every single Republican will attempt to gain the support of the tea party movement. But which candidates do this powerful grassroots movement really support?

This poll gauges such support using a unique “run-off” matchup model. It is designed to elicit deeper preferences from voters and make it much more difficult for well-organized campaigns to “game” the system. The results below are for the last 30 days and reflect the percentage of times a candidate was preferred in a head-to-head “run-off” against other potential candidates. We also suspect they more accurately reflect the true pulse of the tea party movement than those cited by the mainstream media.

POLLING METHODOLOGY

The 2012 Tea Party Presidential Poll is a Condorcet election method (specifically a version of Copeland’s pairwise aggregation method and the Schulze method developed by Markus Schulze in 1997). It is based on the principle that the winner is the candidate who would beat each of the other candidates in a run-off election if such a candidate exists.

The benefit of this polling system is that it elicits deeper preferences of the individual voter than the simple plurality system commonly used by other polls. It is particularly beneficial in a straw poll because it is more difficult for candidates’ organizations to “game” the system. This method also forces voters to give preferences between candidates who may not be their absolute favorite (or the one who paid for their ticket to attend the straw poll).

The Condorcet method is named for the 18th-century French mathematician and philosopher Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas Caritat, the Marquis de Condorcet.

CASTING YOUR VOTES

Once you begin voting, please remember the underlying premise of this methodology. The poll is NOT asking you, “Who do you want to be president?” It is asking, “Of the two potential contenders displayed on your screen, in a head-to-head matchup, who do you prefer as a presidential candidate?

Using this methodology, there are hundreds of matchup combinations. The system selects matchups at random. You may vote on as many matchups as you like.

MEDIA INQUIRIES

For detailed information about how this straw poll is being conducted or commentary about the results, please contact us at: media@myteaparty.org. Background information is available on the About Us page.